The BBC tells of new evidence that Antarctica is warming along with the rest of the planet.
Scientists say data from satellites and weather stations indicate a warming of about 0.6C over the last 50 years.
Writing in the journal Nature, they say the trend is “difficult to explain” without the effect of rising greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, scientists in Antarctica say a major ice shelf is about to break away from the continent.
The Wilkins Ice Shelf is said to be “hanging by a thread” from the Antarctic Peninsula, the strip of land pointing from the white continent towards the southern tip of South America.
This is important, because the suggestion of Antarctic cooling has been seized by contrarians, as illustarated here, here and here.
If you want a more technical description of the evidence, you can get it “straight from the horse’s mouth” as one of the scientists involved blogs at RealClimate.
{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }
dh 01.22.09 at 2:33 am
Isn’t there a huge underwater geothermal area where this area is so that one part of antartica is in fact warming but other areas of antartica are cooling? Unless this large geothermal area around the wilkins shelf is ” “difficult to explain” which I find interesting in light of what the situation truly is around this area which is geothermal.
dh 01.22.09 at 2:33 am
Remember “difficult” and impossible are two different things.
Richard 01.22.09 at 8:18 am
Not unless
a. You think that an undersea geothermal area could influence the whole continent
and
b. the geothermal activity has increased
DH 01.22.09 at 3:26 pm
Richard it is not influencing the whole continent. Did you see how over 3/4’s of the continent is actually cooling however slightly? After readin it in its entirety it is true that there is some warming occuring but only on part of the continent where the pennisula is. So to a) I don’t believe the article is saying it is affecting the whole continent. So to address your latest post:
Not unless
a. the geothermal area is influencing a part of the continent
b. the geothermal activity has increased
To a. & b. as I mentioned the answer is yes.
Richard 01.22.09 at 3:53 pm
I’ll just reply with Eric Steig’s own words, adding only an emphasis:
“So what do our results show? Essentially, that the big picture of Antarctic climate change in the latter part of the 20th century has been largely overlooked. It is well known that it has been warming on the Antarctic Peninsula, probably for the last 100 years (measurements begin at the sub-Antarctic Island of Orcadas in 1901 and show a nearly monotonic warming trend). And yes, East Antarctica cooled over the 1980s and 1990s (though not, in our results, at a statistically significant rate). But West Antarctica, which no one really has paid much attention to (as far as temperature changes are concerned), has been warming rapidly for at least the last 50 years.”
In other words, you have it the wrong way round.
DH 01.22.09 at 4:02 pm
Richard, but even he states that it is only part of antarctica that is warming. I’m not denying that part of antartica the west part is warming. They also are not denying that the rest of Antartica is not cooling. Definitely statistically it is not “warming”. I still believe that they warming is due to known geothermal activity that has been increasing.
It appears none of what you reference refutes what I said.
Richard 01.22.09 at 4:27 pm
“I still believe that they warming is due to known geothermal activity that has been increasing”
But you do that on the basis of little or no evidence. I see a strong similarity with the way you’re arguing here and on this thread.
By coincidence (?) this article from ScienceDaily just found it’s way onto my desk. The first definite evidence of a volcanic eruption under the Antarctic ice cap has been discovered. It is 2000 years old, but the volcano is still active. Here’s a few relevant words:
Co-author Professor David Vaughan (BAS) says,”This eruption occurred close to Pine Island Glacier on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The flow of this glacier towards the coast has speeded up in recent decades and it may be possible that heat from the volcano has caused some of that acceleration. However, it cannot explain the more widespread thinning of West Antarctic glaciers that together are contributing nearly 0.2mm per year to sea-level rise. This wider change most probably has its origin in warming ocean waters.”
Did you notice the last couple of sentences?
DH 01.22.09 at 5:30 pm
Richard, they say “most probably” there are not saying that it is for sure. I really agree there might be some localized ocean water warming that is partly explained by geothermal activity.
You seem to do the same in that the article never put aside that the rest of Antartica outside of the West part is cooling or at the very least staying the same which is NOT a warming that you are trying to put forth.
This part of the response says what i’m saying as well: “The flow of this glacier towards the coast has speeded up in recent decades and it may be possible that heat from the volcano has caused some of that acceleration.” I agree that the volano is not all of the explaination but one cannot say that it is not part of or a great deal of the explaination. Geothermal is a broad term and I used it for a reason. Part of the geothermal activity in Antartica is volanic but there are many aspects of geothermal that are way more complex than volcanic and much of it is NOT due to global warming with respect to Antarctica.
DH 01.22.09 at 5:36 pm
I don’t see the similarities between the “other thread”. It appears you are only focusing on the part that shows warming and fail to look at ALL of the articles which point out there are some cooling or at least staying the same in a good part of Antarctica.
I have never said that the entire Antarctic continent is cooling. I also agree that the West is warming and it is very plausible that the explaination is geothermal of which part of that is volcanic. None of what I said is refuted by your posts you referenced.
One thing that we can say is that it is very plausible that the West is due to geothermal. How that geothermal activity is represented in that locale is something that will take more research. However, with the stability of the ice with a slight increase in the ice in the other areas of Antarctica shows that there are some things outside of global warming that are affecting Antarctica.
anoniab 04.12.09 at 11:52 pm
The one side is definitely affected by the geothermal activity. I supposed it could be strong enough to have a slight effect on the other part of the continent - but what would be the problem with going from
-90 degrees to -85 or even -70?
Richard 04.13.09 at 10:11 am
“Definately”?
That’s a strong word for a thesis that has very little basis in evidence.
The ‘problem’ with going from -90 to -85 is the amount of heat it represents.